21/07/2024
Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, The Invention of The Gatling Gun, and High-Tech Farming
Experiencing the “now” as someone’s “future” is a strange feeling. Reading predictions, whether pessimistic or optimistic, about the future is something we should study more.
Knowing that we will become the “past” is a whole other level, story for another time.
In his essay, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren, Keynes wrote:
For many ages to come the old Adam will be so strong in us that everybody will need to do some work if he is to be contented. … Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!
This, I remind you, is not a prediction about future work hours, but a prediction about the “old Adam” in us. Somehow, by the power of technology granted to us, we will choose to work because we want to, not because we have to.
My Take and Examples from the Past
The progress of technology grants us the ability to do more with less, yet we use it to do more with more.
The invention of the Gatling Gun is a good example. It was invented to reduce the number of soldiers needed to operate a cannon, increase the rate of fire, and reduce casualties. Instead, by the 2nd World War, it was used by all soldiers to kill more people in less time.
Gatling wrote that he created it to reduce the size of armies and thus reduce the number of deaths by combat and disease, and to show how futile war is.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions, as they say.
I am aware that the march of technology is unstoppable, and even if Gatling didn’t invent the Gatling Gun, someone else would have. But the point is, we don’t have the power to wield the technology we have. We have systems and international laws that prohibit the use of weapons that may cause “unnecessary suffering,” but we still wage wars, albeit with less “inhumane” weapons, whatever that means.
Unnecessary and unhinged tangent: calling it “Superfluous Injury” reminds me of George Carlin’s Shell Shock -> Battle Fatigue -> Operational Exhaustion -> Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder bit. Just a feeling, not sure.
As a big fan of listening to Wendover Productions while doing house chores, I’ve learned that high-tech farming can achieve the same yield with less fuel consumption by monitoring tractors and fields with GPS-like systems to better distribute seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides. The logical conclusion would be that farmers would cut down on fuel consumption and pesticides to save money and the environment. While the environmental part is true, farmers are using the saved money to buy the exact same amount of fuel and pesticides because the prices are higher now, not to mention the downpayment for the equipment.
In the end, because of the economies of scale, big farms are getting bigger, and small farms are getting smaller. While it’s debatable if this is a good thing or a bad thing, it is something that’s happening, and I don’t think we have a say in it. We produce more food to feed more people, but we also produce waste, even if the per capita waste is decreasing.
Jevons Paradox is everywhere. We do have more free time thanks to our dishwashers, washing machines, dryers, and vacuum cleaners. But what exactly are we doing with that free time? We are working more than a pre-industrial revolution farmer to enjoy the modern conveniences that we also have to work more to pay for, and the cycle continues.
The New Adam
The old Adam adapted to the times and became the New Adam. While the old Adam did not have to experience hedonistic adaptation that much, that frequently, nowadays the New Adam has to adapt to a new way of living every day. More distractions, more conveniences, more work, less time to enjoy the oversaturated fruit of their labor.